Message-ID: <128961.1075858447820.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Fri, 1 Jun 2001 07:19:59 -0700 (PDT)
From: tradersummary@syncrasy.com
To: kamins@ect.enron.com
Subject: Daily Trader Summary for Fri, Jun 01, 2001
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[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]      Syncrasy, LL=
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Complementary version of Trader Summary from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy I=
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tradersummary@syncrasy.com      Data last updated  Friday, Jun 01, 2001 at =
09:03AM EST    Commentary last updated  Friday, Jun 01, 2001 at 09:19AM EST=
  Meteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote    Click here f=
or a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'   Today: Summary For=
ecast for Fri, Jun  1, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp. Volatility M=
atrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enla=
rge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  66  -2  ERCOT(SP)  92  +2  FRCC(SE)  87  +1  M=
AAC(NE)  69  NC  MAIN(CTR)  66  NC  MAPP(HP)  64  +2  NPCC(NE)  68  +3  SER=
C(SE)  81  -1  SPP(SP)  83  +2  WSCC(NW)  71  NC  WSCC(RK)  82  NC  WSCC(SW=
)  86  NC      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  =
NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   62 71 63 66 79 78 88 83  Max    65 74 68 73 84 =
82 91 87  Min     57 67 57 60 74 75 85 79  Range  8 7 11 13 9 7 6 8  StD-P =
 2.3 1.9 3.3 4.5 2.3 2.2 1.9 2.4  Count  9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9    Day 1 -5 Discus=
sion:  I don't see a lot to change from my previous forecast. It is good to=
 see that with the exception of Day 5, the volatility of the various foreca=
sts has come down showing some agreement.  The Day 5 volatility may be a fu=
nction as to how far West the next trough initially comes in. One of the mo=
dels in my opinion is much too far West with this feature, but seems to res=
olve itself fairly quickly by Day 6. In the short term, we are dealing with=
 a warm front spreading significant rainfall to the East Coast today. On it=
s heels another cold front now in the Mississippi Valley moves East for the=
 weekend with more rain and cooler air behind it. The West Coast ridge slid=
es East which will break down the heat especially for the Pacific NW and No=
rthern Intermountain region. Some minor easing is expected farther South. T=
he next trough will move into the Pac! ific NW this weekend and will reform=
 in the Plains early next week setting up another round of storms for the M=
idwest. Late in the period, the Rockies ridge starts to reform back to the =
West Coast. I am starting to notice a small warming of upper level temperat=
ures in the SE. This is a seasonal trend of the Bermuda high attempting to =
establish itself. It will result in some warmer air from Texas across the G=
ulf Coast to the Carolina's. This is not unseasonal warmth, more a return t=
o normal.  Tomorrow: Summary Forecast for Sat, Jun  2, 2001.  Syncrasy's Ch=
oice:   Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE=
][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  66  +2  ERCOT(=
SP)  93  +2  FRCC(SE)  88  +1  MAAC(NE)  77  +1  MAIN(CTR)  62  -2  MAPP(HP=
)  65  -3  NPCC(NE)  67  NC  SERC(SE)  86  +3  SPP(SP)  79  -1  WSCC(NW)  6=
0  -3  WSCC(RK)  76  -2  WSCC(SW)  79  -1      Range Standard Deviation [IM=
AGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   60 67 64 56 76 =
80 88 79  Max    65 71 70 68 80 86 91 84  Min     55 62 60 48 72 76 84 75  =
Range  10 10 9 20 8 10 6 9  StD-P  2.7 3.5 3.2 6.0 2.7 3.1 1.7 2.6  Count  =
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9   Day 3: Summary Forecast for Sun, Jun  3, 2001.  Syncrasy'=
s Choice:   Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [I=
MAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  63  NC  ER=
COT(SP)  92  +1  FRCC(SE)  91  +3  MAAC(NE)  73  +2  MAIN(CTR)  63  -3  MAP=
P(HP)  62  -2  NPCC(NE)  69  +1  SERC(SE)  85  +3  SPP(SP)  78  -4  WSCC(NW=
)  62  -4  WSCC(RK)  65  -3  WSCC(SW)  79  -1      Range Standard Deviation=
 [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   60 58 63 56=
 66 80 90 79  Max    64 66 69 62 70 86 93 81  Min     54 52 58 51 61 76 88 =
77  Range  9 13 11 11 8 10 5 4  StD-P  3.7 4.5 3.4 3.7 3.0 3.3 1.7 1.1  Cou=
nt  7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7   Day 4: Summary Forecast for Mon, Jun  4, 2001.  Syncr=
asy's Choice:   Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE=
] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  67  -1=
  ERCOT(SP)  90  +1  FRCC(SE)  91  +1  MAAC(NE)  74  +1  MAIN(CTR)  64  -1 =
 MAPP(HP)  61  NC  NPCC(NE)  69  +2  SERC(SE)  85  +1  SPP(SP)  78  -1  WSC=
C(NW)  69  -1  WSCC(RK)  66  -5  WSCC(SW)  82  NC      Range Standard Devia=
tion [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   60 61 6=
2 64 64 80 88 82  Max    65 71 70 69 73 85 91 84  Min     56 55 59 63 60 76=
 85 80  Range  9 16 11 6 13 9 5 3  StD-P  3.1 5.2 2.9 1.6 3.7 2.8 1.6 1.0  =
Count  6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6   Day 5: Summary Forecast for Tue, Jun  5, 2001.  Sy=
ncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IM=
AGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  70 =
 +3  ERCOT(SP)  85  NC  FRCC(SE)  90  +1  MAAC(NE)  76  +3  MAIN(CTR)  65  =
+1  MAPP(HP)  65  -1  NPCC(NE)  70  +2  SERC(SE)  85  +3  SPP(SP)  75  -2  =
WSCC(NW)  74  +1  WSCC(RK)  74  -3  WSCC(SW)  84  +2      Range Standard De=
viation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   59 6=
5 61 65 68 78 80 79  Max    67 75 72 74 77 85 88 84  Min     52 46 54 48 36=
 73 71 58  Range  14 28 17 26 41 12 18 26  StD-P  4.2 7.2 3.7 5.6 10.5 2.4 =
6.4 6.9  Count  6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6    Day 6-10 discussion:  Yesterdays extreme=
 chill(for the season) solution of the MRF for the East has been tempered s=
omewhat as I expected it would. However, there is pretty fair agreement amo=
ng the long range models going into the middle of June. We have seen a bloc=
king pattern in Canada for weeks now which has allowed the jet stream to ro=
am farther South and stronger than normal. The only difference I see in the=
 block is a Westward shift of it to the central part of the country. This s=
hift may be the first signs of a pattern change outside this window. It won=
't make a huge difference in the evolution of the U.S. pattern through day =
10. We should continue to see a mean ridge located over the West with a tro=
ugh in the East. Other than the deep South and of course the ongoing Wester=
n heat, it looks unlikely that any sustainable warmth will develop through =
mid June. Th! e warmer upper levels in the South though I believe are anoth=
er indicator to a change in the pattern to more typical summer after June 1=
5'th. We still have ample rainfall opportunities for the next two weeks. Ot=
her than a few localized areas unusual heat feedback due to drought appears=
 unlikely through at least July 4'th.    Day 6: Summary Forecast for Wed, J=
un  6, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAGE][I=
MAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMAGE] =
  ECAR(CTR)  66  NC  ERCOT(SP)  83  -3  FRCC(SE)  89  +2  MAAC(NE)  74  +3 =
 MAIN(CTR)  67  -2  MAPP(HP)  72  +1  NPCC(NE)  69  +1  SERC(SE)  80  +1  S=
PP(SP)  78  -2  WSCC(NW)  74  +1  WSCC(RK)  80  +1  WSCC(SW)  84  +2      R=
ange Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  =
SW   Mean   64 76 63 70 81 77 80 84  Max    69 81 70 74 83 82 87 84  Min   =
  56 72 59 66 79 74 72 82  Range  13 10 11 8 4 8 15 3  StD-P  5.8 3.6 2.9 2=
.8 1.5 2.5 6.3 0.8  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 7: Summary Forecast for Th=
u, Jun  7, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  [IMAG=
E][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)    [IMA=
GE]   ECAR(CTR)  68  NC  ERCOT(SP)  86  -2  FRCC(SE)  86  NC  MAAC(NE)  70 =
 -1  MAIN(CTR)  73  -1  MAPP(HP)  75  +1  NPCC(NE)  68  NC  SERC(SE)  79  -=
1  SPP(SP)  81  -1  WSCC(NW)  74  +1  WSCC(RK)  80  +1  WSCC(SW)  84  +2   =
   Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW  RK  SE  =
SP  SW   Mean   68 81 61 71 82 76 82 84  Max    77 87 68 74 84 80 88 86  Mi=
n     59 76 56 68 81 69 74 82  Range  18 11 12 5 3 11 14 4  StD-P  7.3 4.2 =
3.4 1.9 0.8 5.3 5.9 1.2  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 8: Summary Forecast f=
or Fri, Jun  8, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp. Volatility Matrix  =
[IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to enlarge)   =
 [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  74  +12  ERCOT(SP)  87  +8  FRCC(SE)  86  +12  MAAC(N=
E)  74  +19  MAIN(CTR)  76  +8  MAPP(HP)  77  +1  NPCC(NE)  70  +17  SERC(S=
E)  81  +14  SPP(SP)  83  +3  WSCC(NW)  73  +8  WSCC(RK)  79  -2  WSCC(SW) =
 83  +4      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE  NW=
  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   72 81 62 71 83 77 83 83  Max    77 84 71 78 85 83=
 89 85  Min     68 79 57 66 80 70 76 82  Range  9 6 14 12 5 13 13 3  StD-P =
 3.4 1.5 4.1 4.5 1.7 5.9 5.4 0.9  Count  5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 9: Summary F=
orecast for Sat, Jun  9, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp. Volatility=
 Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to en=
large)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  68  -1  ERCOT(SP)  79  -2  FRCC(SE)  76  +1 =
 MAAC(NE)  66  NC  MAIN(CTR)  71  -3  MAPP(HP)  77  +1  NPCC(NE)  61  NC  S=
ERC(SE)  71  -1  SPP(SP)  80  -1  WSCC(NW)  66  +3  WSCC(RK)  80  +5  WSCC(=
SW)  82  +3      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP  NE=
  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   70 78 62 72 81 76 82 84  Max    71 79 62 78 8=
3 82 89 86  Min     68 75 59 66 77 72 79 82  Range  3 4 3 11 6 9 10 4  StD-=
P  1.0 1.3 1.1 5.7 2.4 3.8 3.4 1.6  Count  4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4   Day 10: Summar=
y Forecast for Sun, Jun 10, 2001.  Syncrasy's Choice:   Delta Temp. Volatil=
ity Matrix  [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE] (Click on image to=
 enlarge)    [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR)  69  -1  ERCOT(SP)  81  -2  FRCC(SE)  76  =
-2  MAAC(NE)  71  NC  MAIN(CTR)  69  -1  MAPP(HP)  71  +2  NPCC(NE)  63  NC=
  SERC(SE)  74  -2  SPP(SP)  82  NC  WSCC(NW)  70  +1  WSCC(RK)  75  +3  WS=
CC(SW)  83  +3      Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg  CT  HP =
 NE  NW  RK  SE  SP  SW   Mean   62 67 62 62 68 73 77 73  Max    70 74 66 7=
0 77 74 82 84  Min     53 59 57 54 56 71 71 63  Range  16 14 9 15 21 4 11 2=
0  StD-P  7.6 6.7 4.3 7.3 9.8 1.3 5.2 10.2  Count  4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4    Trade=
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